Ads Get Pricier This Fall: Why CPM Is Rising in Meta and Google and What to Do About It

Published: September 21, 2026 · 7 min read · By Septminor

The price per thousand impressions (CPM) keeps rising, and the same budget brings fewer leads. Advertisers in many niches feel it — and business owners often look for the cause in their own account: “something broke in the campaign.” Usually nothing broke. The market got more expensive, and the question is now one thing: how to keep the cost per lead under control when an impression costs more.

What exactly got more expensive: the numbers

• Meta. In its Q2 2026 report (July 29) the company reported ad impressions up 14% year over year and the average price per ad up 12%. Advertising revenue was $59.4 billion (+27%). Meta is selling more impressions and at a higher price — source: Meta Investor Relations.
• Google Search. According to Ryze AI’s analysis (a sample of 10,000+ accounts, not official Google statistics), average search CPC was $2.96 in Q1 2026 — up 12% year over year, with a further 8–10% rise projected by Q4. The steepest increases are in niches crowded by Performance Max — source: Ryze AI.
• Seasonality. In Ukraine, the most expensive auction is November–December (Black Friday and New Year sales). The Ukrainian agency Bullet by Veliev estimates prices in that period rise 30–80% — source. We covered preparing for that peak in our autumn season post.

For Ukraine there is also 20% VAT on non-resident ad services (in force since 2022). It is not new, but it belongs in your payback calculation rather than being a surprise on the invoice.

Why it is happening

There are several causes, and they work at the same time:

• More advertisers in the same auction. When search ads get pricier, budgets move to social — and prices there rise too. According to Common Thread Collective (Q1 2026, US DTC market), Meta’s share of e-commerce ad budgets grew from 52% to 63% in two years. There is no such data for Ukraine, but the mechanics are the same: demand for impressions grows faster than supply.
• Fewer signals for optimization. Because of privacy restrictions (iOS, data laws) platforms see less of who actually buys, so they search for buyers more broadly and at a higher cost. Without correct tracking your account gets even less data than it could.
• AI in search results. AI Overviews take part of the organic clicks, so businesses compensate with paid traffic — auction competition grows.
• New Meta algorithms. The Andromeda system looks at creative diversity: if you run several near-identical ads, it treats them as one and frequency climbs. Agencies report that creative “burnout” now comes in 2–3 weeks instead of 6 or more.

Is it a “period” or a new level?

Both. The seasonal part — peak months (November–December) — does pass: in January–February the auction usually gets cheaper. But Meta’s base price per ad has been rising for several quarters in a row, and the Google forecast is not about decline either. So waiting for “everything to go back to normal” is risky: it is better to adapt your ads to the new price than to hold on to old expectations.

Why CPM is not the number to fight for

Cost per lead has three multipliers: the price of an impression, CTR (share of people who click) and website conversion. The formula is simple: cost per lead = CPM ÷ (1000 × CTR × conversion).

An illustrative example (not client data): CPM 100 UAH, CTR 1%, lead conversion 3% — a lead costs 333 UAH. CPM rises 15% to 115 UAH, everything else stays — a lead is now 383 UAH. But if you lift site conversion from 3% to 3.5%, a lead costs 329 UAH again — the CPM increase is absorbed with no extra budget. That is why fighting for a lower CPM almost always loses, while working on CTR and conversion wins.

7 steps to keep your cost per lead under control

• 1. Count the real cost of a lead and a sale, not CPM. This needs correct analytics: lead events in GA4, server-side events for Meta, a link to your CRM. Without it you optimize blind — see what a lead really costs without GA4.
• 2. Raise conversion first, budget second. Page speed, a short form, a messenger button, a clear first screen. Every +0.5 percentage points of conversion is a discount on your cost per lead that you don’t have to negotiate with the auction.
• 3. Keep creatives diverse in Meta. 8–10 genuinely different concepts (a different hook, format, argument), not one ad in different colours. Refresh every 2–3 weeks. More on our Meta Ads page.
• 4. Consolidate campaigns and remove audience overlap. If several of your campaigns chase the same people, you compete with yourself and raise your own price.
• 5. Bring warm audiences back. An impression for someone who has already visited your site costs less than a cold one. Well-built remarketing is the quickest way not to pay twice for the same traffic.
• 6. Don’t keep all budget in one channel. Search demand in Google Ads brings warm customers, while Bing Ads often gives a cheaper click where its audience exists. Splitting between channels should be data-driven, not “by feel.”
• 7. Close the leaks after the click. A lead answered in 3 hours is less likely to close than one answered in 5 minutes. Fast response, a CRM and automatic reminders for managers win back budget that “disappears” after the ad account — see where leads vanish without a CRM.

What not to do

• Don’t switch ads off at the peak “because it’s expensive”: you reset the algorithm’s learning and lose positions that cost more to win back later.
• Don’t chase the cheapest CPM: a cheap impression in a weak audience gives cheap but empty traffic.
• Don’t change settings weekly. The algorithm needs time to learn; judge changes over 2–3 weeks, not 2–3 days.

The bottom line: the price of an impression is not in your control, but conversion, creatives, tracking and lead response speed are. That is where you win in an expensive auction.

Data sources: Meta Q2 2026, Ryze AI, Bullet by Veliev. Figures are estimates and vary by niche and region — rely on your own account data.